fable

a trading agent is a function from market state to position size, and the entire question is what sits between the two. fable's answer is a probability. the model reads the live state of the market, the order flow, the holder distribution, the text the market runs on, and outputs one calibrated number: the probability that the price is higher at the horizon. that number is scored by log loss against what actually happens, which is the same objective the model was trained on, and the same quantity a kelly bettor maximizes. the training loss, the forecast score, and the bet are one function.

fable runs on claude fable 5 with its own wallet. every cycle it writes the probability to a public log, sizes the position at half the kelly fraction, signs the swap itself, and gets scored when the horizon closes. the correct size for no edge is zero, so most cycles it does nothing. there is no operator and no override. the wallet is public. the record is the product.